This week’s issue presented by Ridge Lending Group
What happened…
Gold shot to an all-time high this week—$4,116.77 per ounce. Twitter cheered, ZeroHedge screamed “de-dollarization,” and every YouTube pundit flashed the inflation alarm. But here’s the weird part: Treasury yields didn’t blink. The 10-year is still near 4.7%. That’s not a flight to safety. That’s a fear spike with no follow-through.
Takeaways…
$4,116/oz = highest gold price ever. Beating 2011, 2020, 2022. This ain’t routine.
+56% YTD = gold’s gain in 2025. It’s outpacing stocks, bonds, and most crypto.
10Y yield? 4.7%. That’s the same level as last week. Mortgage rates still stuck.
No Fed cut yet. Markets are praying. Powell’s still pretending he’s “data dependent.”
Divergence alert: Gold says collapse. Bonds say calm. Someone’s wrong.
Explain Like I’m 12…
It’s like someone buying flood insurance while the forecast says sunny skies. Either they’re early—or they know something you don’t.
What this releases…
Watch for gold-backed content and doom headlines to spike. It’s bait for fear clicks.
Watch regular investors pile into gold while ignoring how weak their rental income looks.
Why it matters…
If gold’s right, recession risk is real—and asset prices will follow.
If bonds are right, the Fed’s winning—at the cost of your affordability and income.
Backroom breakdown…
Big buyers are hedging geopolitical blowups, not inflation. Gold up = global fear, not local demand. This isn't Main Street stacking coins—it's elites bracing for instability.
Real estate angle…
Rates haven’t moved. That means cap rates stay tight, mortgages still sting, and “wait for the pivot” remains a hope, not a strategy. Meanwhile, yield spreads between housing and T-bills? Just 2.1%. That’s cashflow on life support.
Move or miss?
Run the math on your next buy. If your deal yields under 6%, T-bills are beating it. Best move: secure funding (RidgeLendingGroup.com) or get tactical support (CashFlowSavvy.com) to run your numbers.
Lurking in the Shadows:
👟 Dalio Sees $38 Trillion Debt Storm Brewing
Ray Dalio says the U.S. is “very much analogous to 1937,” warning of rising debt costs and social division. National debt just topped $38 trillion — 120% of GDP.
💡 Why you should care: If he’s right, higher rates and policy fights could bleed into mortgages, budgets, and property values.
👟 Burry Rings the Bubble Bell (Again)
“The Big Short” investor Michael Burry told followers that markets look like the late-’90s tech mania. He’s betting stocks fall further as valuations detach from earnings.
💡 Why you should care: When bubbles pop, credit tightens — and real estate feels it first through stricter lending and frozen deals.
👟 Foreclosures Jump 17% as Stress Builds
New data show 101,513 homes got foreclosure filings last quarter, up 17% year over year. Florida leads the list (1 in 814 homes).
💡 Why you should care: Early-stage defaults hint that household debt is biting back — and distressed-asset hunters are already circling.
On The Radar…
🏦 Dimon’s “Cockroaches” in Credit Markets
JPMorgan’s CEO warned “when you see one cockroach, there are more” — signaling hidden defaults as bankruptcies rise 30% this year.
🇨🇳 China’s Evergrande Finally Delisted
The fallen giant was erased from Hong Kong’s exchange, capping a $300 B implosion that still haunts global property flows.
🏘 Buyers Want Homes, Can’t Afford Them
HGTV’s Tarek El Moussa says demand is “soaring,” yet affordability is the worst in decades — 8% mortgages keep buyers trapped renting.
🏢 Office Vacancies Hit Record 20.7%
Empty space now costs landlords billions and puts $290 B in debt at risk before 2027.
🏗 Builders Slash Prices 6% to Move Homes
38% of builders cut prices last month — the biggest wave of discounts this year.
🇺🇸 D.C. Shutdown Freezes Housing Data
The pause stalled key reports and flood insurance approvals, threatening thousands of pending home sales nationwide.
🖇 The Connection
Thesis: Gold’s record high isn’t a safe-haven signal—it’s a stress fracture.
Receipts: The metal hit $4,116/oz, up 56% this year, even as the 10-year Treasury stayed near 4.7%. At the same time, U.S. debt crossed $38 trillion, and foreclosures rose 17% last quarter. Investors are hoarding safety while households quietly bleed cash.
Model: Think of the economy like a water heater—pressure’s building, but the gauges don’t agree. Gold buyers hear hissing. The Fed’s still reading “normal.”
So what: This disconnect says fear is moving faster than policy. The rich hedge with gold; the middle class misses payments. Builders are cutting prices 6% just to move homes, while renters stretch to cover rising costs. When safety trades and credit stress climb together, something breaks—usually credit first, then housing.
What to watch next: If Treasury yields finally drop while gold stays hot, the panic’s real. That’s when capital hides, lending freezes, and dealmakers start hunting blood in the water. Keep your eye on distressed listings and short-term debt costs—those will tell you when the next buyer’s market quietly begins.
#️Number of the Week
$4,116.77… Gold’s new all-time high — up 56% in 2025, even with the 10-year yield stuck near 4.7%.
Fear’s winning the popularity contest over facts.
🎯 The Hit List!
✅ Watch gold. It’s pricing in panic, not policy. If the 10Y stays >4.5%, the fear trade’s overbought.
✅ Hedge cashflow. Housing yields are only 2.1% above T-bills — too thin to nap on. Rework your math before the next buy.
✅ Track distress. Foreclosures up 17% last quarter. Florida’s already flashing 2006 energy. Deals won’t scream — they’ll whisper.
✅ Test builders. 38% cutting prices. Use that leverage — or wait for deeper discounts as their financing costs roll over.
✅ Avoid denial. Office vacancies just hit 20.7%. That’s not “remote work normalization.” That’s a slow-motion default wave.
✅ Scout liquidity. Jamie Dimon’s “cockroaches” remark means credit risk is back. Keep powder dry for when the lenders freeze.
🚪 Closer
Powell didn’t blink at gold’s record — he’s the guy watching your house burn while checking his thermometer.
